According to Boeing, in the next 20 years the Argentine airlines would spend between 10,000 and 15,000 million dollars (between 500 and 750 million dollars every 365 days) to purchase new aircraft. “In the next two decades, the Argentine companies will take 15% of the 2,100 planes we foresee will be ordered from Latin America,” pointed out Drew Magill, Marketing Director for Boeing Commercial Airplanes for all America.

That 15% is equivalent to 315 machines, which divided by 20 years equal almost 16 planes per year. Almost an impossibility.

And this is not just on account of the amount of aircraft in question, but also because of the money involved in the operation reckoned by Boeing. Where are the 500 to 750 million dollars per year needed to bring new planes to Argentina going to come from? Until today, this is a question without an answer.

Furthermore, when the Sales vice-president for Latin America and the Caribbean, John Wojick was consulted about the number of present orders from Argentine companies to Boeing, the executive officer admitted that “there were no orders, but that would change”.

From the other side of the street, on the European continent, Airbus forecasts a demand of a little over 1,300 planes from Latin America and the Caribbean in the coming 20 years. It is almost half of what its US rival foresees.

The European builder, on talking about sales projections of new machines in Argentina, maintains that “in spite of having had enormous growth since its opening in 1990, the third largest Latin American air market is suffering from a deep recession that prevents the airlines from renovating their fleets”.

“However,” they say, “the health of Brazilian economy and the likely opening of skies with the US in 2003 and within Mercosur in a few more years, added to the stabilization of Argentine economic and political structures, should allow the revival of air traffic.”

The outlook is optimistic, even though they give no figures.

The differences between the Boeing and Airbus estimates are considerable both for the amount of planes that one and the other say Latin America will need, as for the type of machines requested.

Without actually saying so, in Seattle they confirmed that the A380 has no market in Latin America.

“There will be no aircraft sales in the region of planes such as the 747 or larger models,” they say. In fact, Boeing reckons that out of the total world demand only 4% will be for planes similar to or larger than the Jumbo, though they admit that sales in this segment will represent 12% of the invoicing of the builders in the entire planet.

Despite the fact that no Airbus officer admits it officially, they guarantee that Boeing minimizes the sales potential of planes with capacity for more than 400 seats because – they maintain – they are still hurt about having to drop the super B747 project in the face of the scant interest it arose in the airlines, which preferred the A380.

Out of the 1,300 deliveries expected for Latin America in the next 20 years, 18 would be for A380 type planes or for over 400 seats,” Airbus sources assure. “These 18 planes imply an invoicing of 4,100 million dollars,” they add.

Other Latins

Brazil and Mexico, the two largest markets in Latin America, will absorb 59% of the orders in the region along the next 20 years, they say at Boeing. Brazil will take 39% (some 800 planes worth 41,000 million dollars) and Mexico will keep the remaining 20% (close to 430 aircraft worth 24,000 million dollars).

At Airbus they do not estimate numbers, but they point out the potential of both markets over the other countries in the region. They say, “Brazil is recovering from the 1999 crisis better that was estimated by many analysts. It is a huge country with a very low rate of per capita trips and an immense potential for growth. It is likely that little by little it will implement an open skies policy, adding another growth factor to its international traffic”.

With regards to Mexico, they explain that “despite its narrow dependence on the US economy, the 2000/2001 period has been one of growth for the Mexican airlines. Only the American de-acceleration caused by 11 September ruined the financial health of the companies. In the medium term, the coming into effect of NAFTA, the relative independence of other Latin American crisis and the sustained growth of tourism gave a vigorous impulse to aviation in that country”.

Boeing reckons that Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, El Salvador, Trinidad-Tobago, Jamaica, Panama, Peru and Venezuela will require from 10 to 80 new planes during the next two decades, on which they will invest between 1,000 and 5,000 million dollars.

Airbus does not mention numbers individually, though it does offer a separate panorama for each of the countries and groups the members of Central America and the Caribbean:

Chile: “After a few years of astronomic growth, the Chilean market de-accelerated in 2000 and 2001. However, the financial health and wise leadership of its main airline, Lan Chile forecast a prompt recovery to which will contribute the present policy of open skies with the US, the alliance with Iberia and Oneworld and the signing of future agreements for open skies with the Mercosur countries.”

Colombia: “The formerly dynamic commercial air market has suffered a strong recession in the past few years, from which it is recovering. The Avianca-ACES fusion, together with the liberal agreement reached with the US and the national economic recovery would tend to improve the situation.”

Peru: “After the years of crisis and bankruptcy of all the traditional Peruvian airlines, the market has recovered thanks to Aerocontinente, TACA-Peru and Lan Peru. With the combination of open skies with the US and the strategic location of Lima as center for South American traffic, besides the potential of Peru as destination for tourism, it is to be hoped that the market grows considerably in the near future.”

Venezuela: “The Venezuelan market recovered pointedly in 2001 thanks to the increase in the price of oil. However, the volume of the national market and of the Latin American markets too, justify a reasonable growth no sooner the economy recuperates thanks to the exports of crude.”

Central America: “The region continues to enjoy a generally dynamic situation, despite the 11 September effect. Both TACA and COPA, one associated to Oneworld and the other to Wings, respectively, are operating young fleets.”

The Caribbean: “The Caribbean region assembles a large number of airlines, all well differentiated. The market depends to a great extent on tourism, and while the US tourist market has been quiet for some years, the European tourism is growing. There are prospects for open skies agreements and perhaps for alliances between the airlines of Caricom, besides a great tourist potential, particularly in Cuba.”

They say that a new year is a new life, but the situation of the commercial air market does not change as the calendar pages fall. To see the Boeing forecast materialize sounds like magic. At least for Argentina.